I've been involved in crypto since reading about Bitcoin in 2010. I've seen coins come and go and everything in between. How many of you know what Solidcoin is? Yeah, I've seen a thing or two. submitted by
Whether or not a coin does well in the long-term is tied to many factors. Among those factors, one of them is the emission rate of new coins. Emission rate, of itself, doesn't mean much because it is constant. However, it is a positive sign when you see a high level of demand which can be translated as the total network hashrate being rather large. At this time I see the number one Cryptonight bases coin is Monero. The Monero network hashrate is around 1000mh/s. This is very high and it is a testament to the fact that Monero is perceived to be a coin of value worth the effort to mine. Electroneum, at this time, has the next highest network hashrate of all Cryptonight coins. Currently it is bouncing between 250-300mh/s. This level of mining support tells me there is significant value in mining ETN.
So, back to the emission rate. The emission rate of new coins is often pretty high. This is especially true for ETN. Like other coins, Sumocoin excluded, the emission rate is constantly decreasing. This feature isn't remarkable in itself, but in the case of ETN it will be more interesting than it is with other coins. I did the math for the ETN long-term emission rate and I figured that ETN block rewards will become effectively very small in comparison to the current reward in 10 years. In 5 years, the block reward will be about 10% of what it was at release. About 750 ETN. In another 5 years following that, it will be about 75 ETN. Understand, these rewards will be true regardless of the technology advances that occur. Even if the network hashrate grows to 1000Gh/s, the emission rate will not change and the rewards will still decrease to these numbers. In short, ETN will become much harder and expensive to mine. This will have a direct impact on the value of ETN in the future.
So how much of an impact am I talking about? I'm going to throw some numbers out there. These are Very Conservative numbers, but I feel they are realistic for anyone interested in the long-term outlook. Assuming that ETN does nothing new from where they are today, it will be a safe conservative bet that ETN will be worth $0.25-0.35 in five years. If ETN can survive for five years, the five years following that will be the largest in growth. In ten years ETN will be worth $2.50-3.50.
Lambos? No, not really. But for all practical purposes, a very good outlook for long-term investors. For many, these numbers are unacceptable. And I get where those people are coming from. They see coins skyrocket 10,000% in one year and they want some of that magic. The purpose and use case behind ETN could very well drive the price much higher than my predictions. But understand that my numbers are based on nothing new or remarkable happening for ETN. And with that, I should also provide a sober and alternative possibility for the future of ETN as well. This is what I call the Solidcoin Fate.
Remember Solidcoin? Yeah, a lot of people don't. Solidcoin was a new coin that was introduced around the time that Namecoin was developed, although it wasn't related to NMC in any way. Solidcoin became the first new Crypto to have a significant percentage of miners drop BTC mining for mining Solidcoin. Things were looking great until the developer suddenly dropped support and abandoned everything. It wasn't a scam coin. The developer simply never intended it to take off like it did and became overwhelmed and disillusioned with technical difficulties at the same time. Thus, Solidcoin evaporated as quickly as it became a success. The lesson here is, a centralized coin can suddenly go belly-up if the developer suddenly abandons it. While I don't expect to see that with ETN, it is a possibility that could occur. Hopefully, as was the case for how Monero was born, a large group of supporters will take over and continue development as a decentralized coin. The number of supporters for ETN certainly supports a scenario like this if the worse were to happen.
No matter what happens, it will be an interesting ride to take. As a holder and user of ETN (Yes, I use it. Bought several Steam games with it. It's not a currency if you don't ever spend it.) I naturally want to see the best outlook become reality. I am also a realist, and I don't subscribe to dreams of riches and "lambos". Even if magical things happen in the world of Cryptos, it isn't responsible to make investments and decisions based on fantasy. The reality for ETN, in my opinion, is that it will be a great coin to hold if you can hold for 10 years. I can hold for 10 years and I will. My investment isn't so great that I need to worry about it or that I'm always thinking about it. If yours is, you aren't investing responsibly. Best of luck to everyone.
It looks like the news finally became interesting enough to comment on again.
Merchant adoption is happening top-down
Last year, someone who predicted that Wal-Mart would be accepting bitcoins in two years would have been looked at as insane. Now, some people view that scenario as inevitable.
The important part of merchant adoption isn't the people paying in bitcoins; it's that there is another place for businesses to spend bitcoins. The more the space develops, the more likely it looks that the first people to use bitcoins for common purchases will be business to business transactions. If you have lots of bitcoins from customers, and your supplier also accepts bitcoins from customers, then there is no reason to pay Coinbase a fee to cash out your bitcoins and then pay bank fees to pay the supplier.
Some businesses have a model where the same goods are purchased every day, and these businesses are perfect for the beginnings of this. For example, Subway needs to buy huge numbers of fresh tomatoes every day for its stores. If Subway accepted bitcoins, it makes more sense for them to just send their bitcoins immediately to the tomato supplier. That way, they are shielded from volatility and they don't have to pay fees.
Bitcoin as a big-money transfer network
Everything is pointing towards bitcoin, for the foreseeable future, becoming a network for business-to-business transfers. Seeing as how it is taking a while for people to add wallets to their phones, the logical first users are businesses.
Businesses are also largely unaffected by the 1MB transaction limit, because transaction fees are constant. For them, if you need to buy $1m in tomatoes, $0.50 will get you into the next block easily. I've said in the past that bitcoin could become a clearinghouse between banks. The factors are lining up that non-financial business-to-business transactions could be coming first, followed by transfers between banks.
One way to judge upcoming price movements is to look at sentiment in /bitcoin
. I don't think there's a negative article posted there today.
Unfortunately, it looks like people are back at it in /bitcoinmarkets
again, and it disappoints me to see that. This time, someone is being personally attacked in a hugely out of proportion thread where some users have alleged that he has some "motive" to influence the price of bitcoins.
I can't ever get into someone's head to see what he is thinking. Just using the logic of math, there are so many possible thoughts a person can have that the odds of me coming upon the correct one by chance are astronomically small. Therefore, it would be inappropriate of me to accuse people of thinking something when my accusation is almost guaranteed to be false.
The other issue with accusing people of "motives" is that they really aren't relevant. Talk is cheap, but actions are relevant. This is why laws specifying greater penalties for "hate crimes" should be eliminated. If you rob someone and kill him, then you took someone's life unnecessarily regardless of whether you drew a swastika on the door on the way out.
I strongly disapprove of anyone who attempts to attach "motives" to people who are posting on the Internet. There aren't many blows cheaper than that. If you disagree with someone, then say so, and if you think that a person's posts are not contributing to the discussion, then say that or report them to the moderators.
*Note: I edited this post after someone mentioned to me that it isn't illegal to post a swastika on a door without committing a murder. So if I painted the symbol on my door, there would be no penalty for that act, but if I killed someone on my porch and then painted the symbol on my door, the penalty for that act would be several additional years in prison, even though I did the same thing both times.
Follow the money
To figure out what's really happening with anything in life, follow the money. My dad yesterday called me and was wondering if he should sell. Selling certainly wouldn't be a bad idea, given that I told him to buy at $68. He had watched one of those YouTube videos where people were talking about the invention of bitcoin and its significance.
In the video, a guy was arguing that the blockchain technology was going to bring a lot of changes, but that bitcoin itself might fail. I simply don't comprehend this argument. Money is the simplest, most logical, most useful, and most necessary of all the applications for which the blockchain can be used. If you don't use a blockchain of money, then how do you have a distributed stock exchange?
What surprises me, but which confirms my argument, is that almost all of the $130m in venture capital that went into bitcoins this year is going into services based on accepting and processing bitcoins, with the largest going to BitPay. Nobody is investing millions into proofs of existence or voting systems. These people don't just throw money around when it isn't going to provide a return. That demonstrates that money is the application where the blockchain technology will be most successful.
Why most blockchains will fail
This brings me to why most of these alternate blockchain technologies will fail. Ethereum is an example of a technology that was not primarily designed to be used for money. Namecoin is another example.
The problem with these technologies is that miners need to be rewarded in some way. Namecoins are not money; they are tokens that can be used to register domain names. If you want to register a domain name, then namecoins are great for you, but if you don't, then you want to get rid of them so that you can obtain something that is fungible and is valued by everyone. The only people who value namecoins are people who want domains, people who are squatting domains, and people who think that other people will pay more for them. Unlike bitcoins, namecoins and ethereum are not accepted at 60,000 merchants.
Namecoins would have succeeded if people who mined them were rewarded with bitcoins. But rewarding namecoin miners with bitcoins not only would have been difficult to implement, but would also would have defeated the purpose of their existence as a separate chain. Had they been implemented as colored coins, they might have had a different outcome.
Speaking of namecoins, one way to earn bitcoins while mining namecoins is through merge mining. In merge mining, a miner hashes multiple coins at once, and when a block is found for one of them, then he also gets blocks in all the other coins of lower difficulty.
Merge mining has been heralded as a solution to a number of problems for altcoins. I'm not sure that it's all it's cracked up to be. For one, merge mining does more to centralize mining than anything else. Now, a pool like mine can mine ten coins at once rather than one, and sell them all at once to get bitcoins.
Since merge mining is complicated to set up, and requires miners to be aware of all the new coins coming out every day, solo mining is not optimal for merge mining. Meanwhile, pools can easily add new coins and all of their miners will be mining the newest coins.
Also, merge mining makes coins extremely vulnerable to 51% attacks. Imagine that you have 10 coins you are mining, there are three pools, and there are no other miners. One pool mines 3 of them, one pool mines 6, and the third pool mines all of the coins. The third pool, which makes the most money, therefore attracts the most miners and obtains 40% of the market share of all three pools. The other pools have 30% each.
In this situation, 7 of the 10 coins are unintentionally subjected to 51% attacks. Three of the coins are mined by the two other pools, so the largest pool has a minority share in those coins. For the other 7 coins, the large pool has 70% or 100% of the hashpower.
To make things worse, price is irrelevant to merge mining, since adding a new coin requires no more electricity. The most expensive coins are just as likely to be killed as the most inexpensive coins. If darkcoins were merge mined, they would be just as likely to be killed off as krugercoins would, despite krugercoins having no meaningful advantages over other types of coins. Not only does this jeopardize "better" coins, it also means that junk coins will stick around much longer because nobody will be able to put an end to them.
Merge mining is a great equalizer: price, vulnerability, and features (or lack thereof) all become the same.
Extrapolating bitcoin difficulty or price is pure voodoo. It is much easier to predict the relationship of the two parameters in form of the Mining Factor. The Mining Factor 100 is the value in USD of the bitcoins you can generate if you let a 100MHash/s miner run for 24 hours. If the Mining Factor 100 rises above $2 or so everybody buys mining equipment and thus increases difficulty. If it ... Namecoin and Bitcoin next difficulty. This platform shows you information about Bitcoin and Namecoin’s difficulty through a new algorithm used to estimate next difficulty rates, which is more accurate than traditional estimations. 5. Block Explorer. Here, you have to click on the first option called “getdifficulty” and a new webpage will open with just the number you’re looking for. 6 ... Bitcoin is a distributed, worldwide, decentralized digital money … Press J to jump to the feed. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. r/Bitcoin. log in sign up. User account menu. 17. For those who haven't heard: Merged mining basically triples you profit by giving you Bitcoin AND Namecoin. Close. 17. Posted by. u/coffeetablesex. 8 years ago. Archived. For those ... Top 10 Cryptocurrency Difficulty Charts for 2020 (BEAM) Beam Difficulty Chart (BTC) Bitcoin Difficulty Chart (DASH) Dash Difficulty Chart (ETH) Ethereum Difficulty Chart (ETC) Ethereum-Classic Difficulty Chart (ZEN) ... Namecoin is a domain name system based on Bitcoin.It extends Bitcoin to add transactions for registering, updating and transferring names. The idea behind this is to provide an alternative to the existing DNS system where names can be taken from their owners by groups that control the DNS servers.
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